U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 230043 
Storm Prediction Center ac 230042 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0742 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019 

Valid 230100z - 231200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the Southern Plains and Ozarks... 

Marginally severe wind gusts will be possible over the next few 
hours this evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into central 

..Southern Plains/Ozarks... 
The latest water vapor imagery shows west southwesterly mid-level 
flow over the Southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. At the 
surface, a cold front is moving southeastward across central 
Oklahoma and north-central Missouri. Thunderstorms are ongoing just 
ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are 
generally in the lower 70s f which is contributing to an axis of 
moderate instability (mlcape 1000 to 1500 j/kg). This combined with 
35 to 40 kt of 0-6 km shear evident on regional WSR-88D vwps should 
be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening with strong 
wind gusts possible. 

.Broyles.. 09/23/2019 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 220333 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 220332 

Mesoscale discussion 2000 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1032 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 

Areas affected...KS...southwest Iowa...northwest MO 

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 657... 

Valid 220332z - 220530z 

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 657 

Summary...severe threat is gradually shifting east and waning. New 
ww is not anticipated. 

Discussion...isolated severe wind gusts have been noted within the 
last hour along strongest portion of the squall line near cnk. This 
activity is shifting east along the NE/Kansas border and should progress 
east of ww657 in the next 1-2hr as low level jet focuses into this portion of 
the eastern plains. While convection should remain organized, 
overall severe threat appears to be decreasing, especially as 
thunderstorms shift east of the MO river. A new ww is not 
anticipated downstream. 

.Darrow.. 09/22/2019 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 38920084 39799779 41489533 40269485 38699759 38400062