The Tropics Go Quiet; Beryl Not Expected to Redevelop

Above: Visible satellite image of ex-Hurricane Beryl at 9:45 am EDT July 13, 2018. Ex-Beryl was generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms near Bermuda. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

For the first time since June 27, the tropics are quiet globally. There are no named tropical cyclones left to talk about, after Hurricane Chris was downgraded to a post-tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Thursday. Chris hit Newfoundland, Canada on Thursday evening, bringing sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 56 mph, to the capital of Newfoundland, St. John’s, at 10:30 am NDT Thursday. A 24-hour rain amount of 0.15” (3.8 mm) fell there. Cape Race, Newfoundland reported sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 51 mph, at 8:30 pm NDT Thursday, with a 24-hour precipitation amount of 0.38” (10 mm). Chris’s heaviest rains fell more to the north and west than expected, with Gander recording 2.99” (76 mm) and Bonavista getting 2.40” (61 mm). There are no reports of serious flooding or wind damage in Canada from the storm.

According to CSU hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach’s real time statistics page for the Atlantic, Chris brought the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the Atlantic up to 13.7 ACE units, a level usually not seen until August 17.

June 26: #Snow
July 12: A brush with #Chris, formerly a #hurricane

Welcome to #Newfoundland. https://t.co/7zMPHKUTAe pic.twitter.com/8DgvigKlSi

— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) July 12, 2018

Ex-Beryl unlikely to redevelop

The remnants of Hurricane Beryl were located about 300 miles west of Bermuda on Friday morning, and were headed north-northeast at about 10 mph. Satellite images on Friday morning showed that Beryl's remnants now had a surface circulation, but high wind shear of 25 knots was keeping this circulation poorly defined. The associated heavy thunderstorm activity was disorganized. Beryl’s remains are expected to move north-northeastward at about 10 mph through Sunday. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be a high 25 – 40 knots during that period, and this high shear will very likely keep ex-Beryl from developing, despite the warm waters of the Gulf Stream that the system will be over. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave ex-Beryl 2-day and 5-day odds of regeneration of 20%.

The latest long-range runs of the GFS and European models show no tropical depressions developing in the Atlantic or Northeast Pacific for at least the next week. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center gave a disorganized system far west of Mexico only a 20% chance of development between Sunday and Wednesday, and any system would pose no threat to land. There is likely to be some action in the Western Pacific next week, though, with the European and GFS models showing a tropical depression developing near the Philippines by mid-week.