Oscar Peaks as a Cat 2 With 105 mph Winds; Cat 2 Yutu Hits the Philippines

Above: GOES-16 visibile image of Hurricane Oscar at 9:30 am EDT October 30, 2018. At the time, Oscar was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Iimage credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Hurricane Oscar peaked as a Category 2 hurricane with 105-mph winds on Tuesday morning over the central Atlantic, and is slowly weakening as it speeds north-northeastwards into colder waters. Oscar is not a threat to any land areas.

Satellite images on Tuesday showed that Oscar continued to be a small but well-formed hurricane, with a solid ring of heavy thunderstorms forming a respectable eyewall. The eye had become cloud-filled and obscured, though, a sign that the hurricane was likely weakening. Oscar was a small storm, with hurricane-force winds that extended out up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds that extended out up to 90 miles. Oscar had marginal SSTs to work with on Tuesday, near 25.5°C (78°F), and moderate wind shear around 15 knots. Conditions will slowly grow more hostile for Oscar through Wednesday night, likely leading to a steady weakening trend.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory from 11 am EDT Tuesday brought Oscar's top sustained winds down to 100 mph, and predicted that the hurricane had peaked in intensity. Oscar is caught in the steering flow of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. On Halloween night, Oscar will become embedded in a cold front over the cold waters of the North Atlantic’s tropical cyclone graveyard, which will transform it into a hurricane-strength extratropical storm. Ex-Oscar is expected to speed northeastward, passing between Iceland and the UK this weekend.

More action in the Eastern Pacific likely next week

The Eastern Pacific, which has already seen a record-busy season for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), figures to add to that total next week when at least one new named storm is likely to form, according to recent runs of the European and GFS models. The 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC advertised three separate areas of interest, with 2-day and 5-day odds of development for the westernmost disturbance set at 30% and 40%, respectively.

Strength of typhoon Rosita was felt as of 8:30am at Quirino Province, our staff and volunteers are on the ground and on standby for any emergency situations. pic.twitter.com/hrKJAWuxNs

— Philippine Red Cross (@philredcross) October 30, 2018

Category 2 Typhoon Yutu hits the northern Philippines

Tropical Storm Yutu made landfall near Dinapigue, Isabela, on the coast of northern Luzon in the Philippines near 4 pm EDT Monday (4 am Tuesday local time). At landfall, Yutu—dubbed Rosita in the Philippines—was a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Yutu's trek across Luzon brought the typhoon down to tropical-storm strength, with top sustained winds of 70 mph as of 11 am EDT Tuesday. Yutu may regain typhoon status over the warm waters of the South China Sea. In fact, the HWRF model brings Yutu back to Category 2 strength later this week. Increasing wind shear will soon take its toll, though, and JTWC predicts that little will be left of Yutu by the time it recurves late this week near the southeast coast of China.

Damage assessment was still under way late Tuesday local time across Luzon, but the destruction is expected to be much less than during Super Typhoon Mangkhut, which struck Luzon on September 15 as a Category 5-equivalent storm with 165 mph winds. Heavy rains were still falling along the northeast coast of Luzon on Tuesday, from onshore flow feeding into Yutu’s circulation pushing moist air against the coastal hills. “We see some branches on the roads but it’s flooding that is destroying houses here," said Caroline Haga (spokesperson for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies) from Nueva Vizcaya, Philippines in a tweet on Tuesday. "People are needing to be rescued."

Major flooding in #Bambang municipality where the eye of typhoon #Yutu / #RositaPH passed a few hours ago. Heavy rains continue. pic.twitter.com/E1flyrrxUS

— Caroline Haga (@hagacaroline) October 30, 2018

Meanwhile, recovery efforts continued in the hard-hit U.S. territory of the Northern Marianas Islands, where Yutu struck last week as a Category 5 equivalent. A total of 462 homes were destroyed on Saipan and 70 on Tinian, according to a preliminary damage assessment released Monday by the territorial government and FEMA. Major damage was reported at 317 homes in Saipan and 113 in Tinian. Lines for gas were reportedly up to two miles along in Saipan, which has about 48,000 residents, and power outages remained widespread. The report estimated that it will take three months to bring electricity back to just half of Tinian, which has about 3100 residents.

Bob Henson co-wrote this post.

#Yutu #RositaPH from the Northern Mariana Islands to the #Philippines pic.twitter.com/i8SrLr1iPC

— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) October 29, 2018